Lebanon’s 2010 War

Peace in Lebanon is very precarious at the moment.  While most of the world is focused on Yemen, slowly a true set of alliances in the Middle East could easily bring Lebanon once again to war with Israel:

Hypothetically, Israel would retaliate and bomb some Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon.  Maybe Hezbollah reacts by firing some missiles into Israel causing a more serious conflict with Israel similar to 2006.  Consequently, Syria gets involved and backs Hezbollah with more overt provision of more powerful arms – or worse, attacks Israel.  Peace talks between Israel and Palestine break down as Hamas also fires missiles into Israel.  The dangerous result of a minor catalyst would be the death of thousands of people in Lebanon, Palestine, Syria and Israel as well as the complete breakdown of peace talks and the increase of racist and aggressive rhetoric world-wide.  Of course, I would expect hope to see governments to show a little more restraint, but you never know.

Syria has promised its support to Hezbollah if there is an Israeli attack, as has Hamas.  Iran would certainly not remain passive if such an event occurred and Hamas could take the opportunity to reopen attacks on southern Israel.  And just like that, Israeli-Palestinian peace talks are over and we see more violence and death.  Fortunately, that won’t happen… right?

[tweetmeme] Recently, Israeli PM Netanyahu has been trying to form a unity government with the Kadima.  Lebanese MP Walid Jumblatt seems to think that this unity would mean that Netanyahu is planning another war on Lebanon for this year.  While he has no proof of these plans, analysis, he says, he all he needs to see the writing on the wall.  To increase speculation even further, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak confirmed that Israel would be ready for war in May 2010.  While this seems like saber-rattling, such talk is certainly alarming.  These developments come not days after the UNIFIL operation in Lebanon discovered bombs not one kilometer from the Israeli border.

The bombs, supplied by Syria or Iran, but planted by Hezbollah is another example of the tenuous peace that has been held since the Israeli withdrawal after its brief 2006 war with Hezbollah.  Meanwhile, Israel is continuing its preparations.  Currently, Israel is completing a defense overhaul on its borders with new missile defense technology.  The Jewish nations successfully tested a defense system to protect against Syrian and Iranian missiles and distributed gas masks to the entire population as well.  Israel is also in the midst of completing another defense system to protect the country from missiles launched from Gaza and Lebanon.

With all the war rhetoric let loose lately and the new defense projects that should be in place by mid-2010, one must wonder what the chances of war actually are.  It is possible that Israel uses its new defenses to attack Hamas or Hezbollah, but they would gain little by doing so.  More likely is the chance that new defense capabilities will give Israel more confidence in any clashes with Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria or Iran.  With more protection against incoming rockets and missiles, isolated incidents such as the explosives that were recently found or the rockets shot at Israel could result in a more brazen response by Israel.

Or, with any luck,  the new defense systems will neutralize incoming rockets and stabilize the area enough to make peace.  Israel and Palestine will begin peace talks completely transforming the Middle East.

Or, nothing will really change.

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15 thoughts on “Lebanon’s 2010 War

  1. I would be devastated if another war happened. They should leave the Lebanese people and their country alone. This is too much. Israel= Bully of the Middle east. Inshallah nothing happens.

    1. May, I agree that another war in Lebanon would be terrible and I hope that nothing happens. Personally I don’t think a war will occur anytime soon because both sides are too constrained politically. That is not to say it is impossible, just unlikely.

      Thanks, for the note and I hope you keep up with the blog.

  2. When Palestinians will put down their weapons there will be peace

    When israel will put down their weapons there will be no israel!

    And a war on 2010 summer is very likely to happen.
    You may not believe me but i my self would like a war will not occur.

    i don’t see israel going around and saying they will kill or destroy a certain country.. but you definitely hear iran consistently threatening to eliminate israel….

    1. Ese, I agree that violent resistance is not doing any favors for peace and I also agree that a strong military is important for both the physical existence and the social well-being of Israel. However, the way in which the Israeli weapons are used is at issue for me. Using the army to quell peaceful protests or dropping white phosphorus bombs on Gaza has no use in the fight for Israel’s safety. Part of being strong should be the knowledge of how and when to use your strength.

      I certainly believe you, too, when you say you don’t want war. No one does.

      As for your last point, Iran’s rhetoric is disturbing and should be very alarming for Israel (one reason why Israel needs a strong military) yet, as Israel’s defense minister has said, Iran is not an existential threat; a threat – yes, an existential one? no.

      I also don’t want to seem like a war in 2010 would be purely Israel’s fault. It always takes two. The imminent threat of war, though, makes a peace deal with Syria or Palestine that much more intriguing. Thanks for the note!

  3. somebody know how long take the war in 2010 i woory about my boyfriend and his family…….please tellme

    1. Haydee, it is pretty tough to predict how long a war will last – or whether there will even be a war. If cool heads persist, we will be lucky and there will be no war. Hopefully your boyfriend and his family will remain safe and happy.

      1. There will be no more wars in Lebanon. Every party in Lebanon is armed to the tilt. They all know that if they start a war there will be no winner. and they all know that they will lose Lebanon .
        The Christians have the most sophisticated weapon in the world now . They too have rockests pointed at Hizballah stronghold all over the coutnry. It will be disasterous for any Lebanese party to start a war thinking it can destroy the other. I beleive the Lebanese People from all sects are going to wake up and smell the roses .The Lebanese People are the ones sufferring while the big kahunas in charge are pickering at each other. Its all about the money its not about Allah or God or anything else. Let the people live in peace The Lebanese people had enough . I am sure and beleive fro the bottom of my heart that the shiites Sunnis Christians and Druze all of them had enough and none of them wants war. They all want peace. If their leaders do realy beleive in God they should get together and work for the people not for another country. No tyrant in the whole wide world never ended up dead and stricken. Every thing has an end. God Bless Lebanon and The Lebanese People . Peace is coming Hold on to your country.

      2. I think it is fair to say that everyone hopes that there will be no more wars in Lebanon, but it is much more difficult to present a guarantee o that. I agree that it is in everyone’s interest to avoid war – but isn’t it always? Unfortunately, Lebanon is a divided society that holds together along sectarian and tribal lines. With so many weapons and constant bickering, war is possible. On a side note, I think it is a bit misleading to say that the ‘Christians have the most sophisticated weapon in the world.’ Are you talking about the Christians of Lebanon? Because it is arguable – thanks to the poor military support from the work (particularly the US) – that Hezbollah is far stronger than the LAF.

        Anyway, I think everyone hopes for peace in the country, but I’m not convinced war is impossible.

  4. so that mean …now in lebanon is not in war….I saw the news about lebanon and israel is in war….they are looking for many people in usa to go to the war…..thats why i worry about my boyfriend…….some body can tellme in what page in the internet can i see the news about what happen in lebanon….

  5. lebanon is now in war with israel or not yet is commig………where can i see the news ……in what page of the internet

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