[tweetmeme] Richard Silverstein has a great post about the consequences of an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites. The entire post is very good and worth a read, but I am going to simply post the results of a war games study that Silverstein cites. The study (pdf), done by Prof. Moshe Vered of Bar Ilan University’s Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic studies (and translated by Didi Remez), outlines what the next war will look like and how destructive it will be. Vered’s vision of destruction comes pretty close to what I predicted as well. The one thing I would add is that the study was done last September – before Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Hamas and Hezbollah officially came to together to promise collective defense. This of course means that the scenarios hypothesized by Vered are more likely. Enjoy, if you can.
“The war could be long,” Vered warns, “its length could be measured in years.” The cost that the war will exact from Israel raises a question mark as to the decision to go to war.
The relatively light scenario speaks about an Israeli bombing, after which Iran will fire several volleys of surface-to-surface missiles at Israel. Due to the limited number of missiles and their high cost, the war will end within a short time. The missiles may run out, the study states, but the war will only be getting started.
“The means that may be most effective for the Iranians is war by proxies—Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas,” Vered writes. “(There will be) ongoing and massive rocket fire (and in the Syrian case, also various types of Scud missiles), which will cover most of the area of the country, disrupt the course of everyday life and cause casualties and property damage. The effect of such fire will greatly increase if the enemy fires chemical, biological or radiological ordnance… massive Iranian support, by money and weapons, will help the organizations continue the fire over a period of indeterminate length… due to the long-range of the rockets held by Hizbullah, Israel will have to occupy most of the territory of Lebanon, and hold the territory for a long time. But then the IDF will enter a guerrilla war, a war the end of which is hard to predict, unless we evacuate the territory, and then the rocket fire will return…”
This is not all. “Another possibility,” Vered writes, “is the activation of Iranian expeditionary forces that will be located in Syria as part of a defense pact between the two countries, or sending large amounts of infantry forces to participate in the war alongside Hizbullah or Syria. Iran’s ability to do so will increase after the United States evacuates its troops from Iraq. If the current tension between Turkey and Israel rises, Turkey may also permit, or turn a blind eye to, arms shipments and Iranian volunteers that will pass to Syria through its territory and airspace. Israel will find it very difficult, politically and militarily, to intercept the passage of forces through Iraq or Turkey. The participation of Iranian forces will make it very difficult for the IDF to occupy areas from which rockets are being fired.
“Along with these steps, Iran may launch a massive terror campaign against Israeli targets within Israel and abroad (diplomatic missions, El Al planes and more) and against Jewish targets.”
Iran will not attack immediately, Vered’s scenario states. First it will launch intensive diplomatic activity, which could lead to an American embargo on spare parts to Israel. Along with this, the Iranians will secretly move troops to Syria. Israel will not attack the troops, for fear of international pressure. The IDF will have to mobilize a large reserve force to defend the Golan Heights. After the Iranians complete the buildup of their force, Hizbullah and Hamas will launch massive rocket fire against all population centers. The IDF will try to occupy Lebanon and will engage in a guerrilla war with multiple casualties. Hamas will renew the suicide bombings and Iran will target Israel’s sea and air routes by terrorism. The Iranians will fire missiles at population centers in Israel, and will rebuild the nuclear facilities that were bombed, in such a way that will make it very difficult to bomb them again.
Vered bases his assessment mainly on the regime’s ideology and on the lessons of the Iran-Iraq War, which lasted from 1980 to 1988. He writes: “Half a million dead, a million wounded, two million refugees and displaced persons, economic damage estimated by the Iranian government at about $1-trillion—more than twice the value of all Iranian oil production in 70 years of pumping oil—none of this was sufficient to persuade Iran to stop the war. Only the fear of the regime’s fall led the leadership to accept the cease-fire.
“The ramifications are clear and harsh—like the war against Iraq, the war against Israel will also be perceived by the Iranians as a war intended to right a wrong and bring justice to the world by destroying the State of Israel. Only a threat to the regime will be able to make the Iranian leadership stop. It is difficult to see how Israel could create such a threat.”
The United States would be able to shorten the war if it were to join it alongside Israel. Vered does not observe American willingness to do so. He predicts the possibility of pressure in the opposite direction, by the US on Israel….
The military card
…The game is now approaching the critical stage, the “money time.” Netanyahu and Barak are waving the military card. “All the options are on the table,” they say, accompanying the sentence with a meaningful look. There are Israelis, in uniform and civilian clothes, who take them seriously…
Despite these consequences, Israel is doing little to avoid, or lessen the chances for, war. To undermine the defensive pacts between Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, Israel simply needs to put forth at least the image of desiring peace. By announcing more construction and reportedly killing the indirect peace talks, Israel is instead undermining its own security.