The current Flotilla II and its repercussions have been addressed across the world in many media outlets (some even in the US). The other Chris posted an article stating his point of view on what will happen so I felt I should include mine. The current flotilla was meant to leave on the anniversary of the first which happened in late May of 2010 but has had many difficulties from host countries and mechanical problems. There is no reason here to give the readers, who I assume have read many articles on the first and now second flotilla, a history of what happened last year. It is well documented by many different sources and leaves little room (contrary to Israeli apologist’s belief) for interpretation.
Chris Keeler seems to be much more optimistic than me about the repercussions Israel suffered from the first flotilla. He has ” a tough time, though, believing that Israel would allow another botched operation.” I disagree completely with this sentiment. The Israeli government, with support from the Israeli public, still have not apologized or acknowledged wrong doing in the operation. They are trying to mend fences with Turkey since Turkey is a very important player in the region, but have refused Erdogan’s basic premise of apologizing. Israel does not see, although most of the world disagrees, what it did as fundamentally wrong.
Israel knows that the world can condemn Israel for these sorts of actions, which are not unique for Israel as long as the US does not do anything about it. With statements made by the US after the first Flotilla, and its subsequent statements about this one, it seems the US is taking a certain approach. This approach is to scare Americans who are on their way to Gaza to renege on their pledge as much as possible. This way the US feels a less responsibility to do something about it as they should do when Americans are injured or taken prisoner overseas. Why would America being doing this if it thought Israel was not going to do a repeat or something similar? Israel can do very very little without explicit US approval and it would be an exercise of the ignorant to believe Israel has not told the US what it plans to do.
Israel may not go gung-ho and send the most elite commandos on these ships with live ammunition, but I am under no illusion they are simply going to follow international law and allow the ships to go through. I believe Israel will try and tempt younger activists on the boats by mistreating older activists which will create some conflict that Israeli commandos. Simply I believe Israel is looking for a pretext to teach these people a lesson. If the people hold out without any minimal provocation the ships will simply be seized and brought to Ashdod/Ashkelon, their belongings taken, and them arrested and subsequently deported. All the while the goods will be examined and a few will be let in. I am under no illusion Israel is not looking for a pretext to do a remake of the first Flotilla and will not be surprised one bit if there is a repeat.